Calculation and Simulation of Price, Volume, Mix, and Churn Impacts

In a product portfolio in terms of revenue and operating margin (all industry sectors).

Growth Modeling

Impact on revenue and margin, changes in the break-even point, the rate and cost of acquiring a new customer, and customer attrition.

Modeling Mass-Market Promotional Campaigns

Sales volume uplift and ROI from the promotion.

Modeling Price Elasticity

Substitution effect, formats, impacts on revenue and margin (mass market and luxury).

Modeling Changes in Operating Income

Explanatory overview by root cause.

Calculating a sales price index and a purchase price index

Modeling volume forecasting techniques

• The moving average
• Exponential smoothing
• Trend projection
• Linear regression
• Taking seasonality into account

Simulation under a constraint to stabilize (or reduce) debt

• maximum growth rate?
• minimum margin and cash flow?
• Required asset turnover ratio?

Simulation of the Optimal Revenue Growth Rate

To optimize ROCE over a three-year period.

Feasibility Study for an Industrial Investment Project

• projected income statement (based on operational inputs),
• investment and residual value planning,
• WCR (based on turnover assumptions)
• cash flow (periodic and cumulative curve),
• forex impact,
• calculation and display of profitability indicators (payback, maximum overdraft, IRR, NPV)
• risks and opportunities study
• study version transition matrix
• arranging financing (optional)
• shareholder return vision (optional)

Sensitivity Analysis of a Project's Profitability

Based on the controlled variables affecting working capital (assumptions regarding customer and supplier payment terms, inventory turnover, and advance payments), seek to optimize the working capital.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Project's Profitability

Variability in assumptions regarding timelines (scheduling) and costs (Monte Carlo method).

Comprehensive Modeling of a Construction Project

Including all program management tools and metrics (WBS, Gantt chart, baseline cost estimate, cost breakdown structure, actual costs, work package completion, earned value, cost and schedule variance, cost and schedule performance index, estimate at completion, planning variance analysis by origin).

Comprehensive Modeling of an Oil & Gas Project

Using all the levers and metrics of the exploration/production business (CPP, cost oil, profit oil, excess oil, mining royalty, interest carry), advanced simulation of effects and calculation of variances.

Comprehensive Modeling of a Concession Project

All the drivers and metrics of the dealership business.